A Combined Prediction Model of Rainfall and Flowering Period Based on GRU and Random Forest for Qingming Festival Tourism

Xingyu Liu; Zige Xu; Xuejiao Lu; Miao Xi

doi:10.54097/n7yysv03

Authors

Xingyu Liu College of Electronic Information Engineering, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China
Zige Xu College of Electronic Information Engineering, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China
Xuejiao Lu College of Artificial Intelligence, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China
Miao Xi College of Electronic Information Engineering, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/n7yysv03

Keywords:

Qingming Festival, Rainfall Prediction, Flowering Period Forecast, Growing Degree Day, Random Forest

Abstract

Aiming at the uncertainty of rainfall and flowering period during the Qingming Festival, which directly affects the experience of spring outing and flower viewing activities, this paper proposes a combined prediction framework based on machine learning and phenology models. First, a rainfall discrimination standard for the “continuous drizzle” scenario is defined, and a prediction model based on GRU and SMOTE oversampling is established to forecast the rainfall probability and precipitation of typical cities during the Qingming Festival in 2026. Second, a flowering period prediction model integrating growing degree day (GDD) and random forest regression is constructed to predict the initial, full, and end flowering stages of rapeseed, cherry blossoms, and peony. The proposed method is verified on historical meteorological and phenological datasets. The results show that the rainfall prediction accuracy reaches 87.45%, and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the flowering period prediction is less than 2.5 days. The predicted results match the actual distribution of flowering periods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and northern regions. The proposed model can provide reliable data support for tourism route planning, and has practical significance for the development of flower viewing tourism and the extension of cultural tourism industry chains.

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